A new report from the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS), “Looming Deadlines for Coastal Resilience,” demonstrates the immediate and long-term risks of high-tide flooding to critical infrastructure in U.S. coastal communities, which are home to nearly 90 million people. As global sea levels continue to rise due to climate change, recurrent high-tide flooding has become more common in these communities, threatening essential structures such as hospitals, fire stations, schools, energy and water treatment facilities, and affordable housing. The report finds that “disruptive flooding” – defined as flooding that occurs in the same location at least two days per year – impacts public housing more than any other critical infrastructure category and projects that the number of public housing buildings at risk of disruptive flooding will increase by 922% between 2020 and 2100.
The authors first classified the roughly 150,000 critical infrastructure assets observed in coastal communities into six categories: public housing buildings and affordable housing units (43%), educational institutions (22%), public safety and health facilities (13%), industrial contamination sites (8%), energy facilities (8%), and government facilities (6%). Public housing buildings were identified using HUD’s Public Housing Buildings database and federally assisted affordable housing units were identified using the National Housing Preservation Database, which is jointly managed by NLIHC and the Public and Affordable Housing Research Corporation (PAHRC). Non-federally assisted affordable units were not included in the analysis. Using data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the authors estimated the impact of disruptive flooding on critical infrastructure assets based on three scenarios of global sea level rise between 2020 and 2100: a low scenario resulting in a rise of 1.6 feet; a medium scenario resulting in a rise of 3.2 feet; and a high scenario resulting in a rise of 6.5 feet. They then estimated the number of critical infrastructure assets impacted by actual disruptive flooding conditions in 2020 and projected flooding conditions in 2030, 2050, and 2100. Below, we highlight findings from the projected impact of the medium scenario.
The analysis showed that in 2020, public housing accounted for 23% (208) of the 904 total critical coastline assets impacted by disruptive flooding. Among the affected public housing buildings, 60% experienced disruptive flooding at least 26 times that year. The authors project that by 2030, the number of public housing buildings at risk of disruptive flooding will increase by 37% to 285 buildings. By 2050, an estimated 507 public housing buildings will be exposed to disruptive flooding – more than double the number of buildings affected in 2020 – with more than half of impacted public housing buildings experiencing flooding at least 26 time per year. By 2100, the authors project that as many as 2,125 public housing buildings could be at risk of disruptive flooding, an increase of 922% from the number at risk in 2020.
The authors also find that the risks and impacts of climate-driven high-tide flooding are most acute for communities defined as “disadvantaged” by the White House Council on Environmental Quality’s Climate and Economic Justice Screening Tool (CEJST), which considers the burdens communities face related to housing, health, energy costs, and pollution. Disadvantaged communities account for 35% of all coastal communities but are home to more than half of critical assets at risk of current and future disruptive flooding. More than 70% of public housing buildings at risk by 2050 are located in disadvantaged communities. However, the authors emphasize that the CEJST does not consider race and may therefore underrepresent the impact of historical and ongoing systemic racism on the burdens faced by communities. In a separate analysis, the authors found that people identifying as Black/African American, Hispanic/Latino, or Native American comprise a greater share of residents in these disadvantaged communities than in the overall U.S. population.
The authors conclude by describing how disruptive flooding can result not only in damage to but also loss of public and affordable housing. Repeated flooding can cause structural deficiencies and health hazards like mold that can harm residents’ well-being. Severely damaged buildings may be condemned or demolished, further exacerbating an already acute affordable housing crisis in the United States. The authors cite the existing national shortage of 7.3 million affordable and available rental housing units identified in NLIHC’s 2023 Gap report and call on all levels of government to invest in the protection, renovation, and construction of climate-resilient and energy-efficient affordable housing. Furthermore, they highlight the importance of reforming disaster resiliency and recovery policies, noting that existing programs are insufficiently funded, often geared more toward homeowners than renters, and more reactive rather than proactive. For example, the authors recommend that policymakers consider implementing renter protections that limit evictions during and after disasters, as well as developing preemptive and residents-informed plans for the resettlement of communities in areas at greatest risk of disruptive flooding.
Read the full report at: https://bit.ly/4bAJm1N